双重边界视角下乡镇人口收缩的精准识别与特征分析——以黄河流域为例

• 作者： 张学良 ¹ 潘  婷 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  上海财经大学 城市与区域科学学院
• 通讯作者： 潘  婷 
• 提交时间：2024-07-26

摘要: 文章以黄河流域乡镇为研究对象，以“六普”“七普”、空间遥感和相关经济社会统计数据为支撑，提出一种在行政边界（广义）和经济边界（狭义）双重视角下的收缩识别方法，对黄河流域乡镇人口收缩进行精准界定，进而分析人口收缩的空间格局和特征。研究发现：①2010—2020年黄河流域发生了严重的乡镇收缩现象，76.82%的乡镇发生广义收缩，45.65%的乡镇发生狭义收缩，其中2629个乡镇同时发生广义收缩和狭义收缩，即真正意义上的收缩，占比36.42%。②收缩乡镇的分布呈现出不均衡性，以黄河“几字湾”的西北侧和东侧为主，基本形成了集中连片的分布态势，其中河南省收缩乡镇占比最高。③从空间自相关性看，黄河流域收缩乡镇具有显著的空间集聚特征，低—低集聚区和高—高集聚区的乡镇数量占比分别为37.58%和19.25%。④相比于非收缩乡镇，收缩乡镇劳动年龄人口减少更快，老龄化程度更严重、抚养压力更大、人口红利更少。⑤收缩乡镇在工业企业、规模以上工业企业和综合商店或超市数量的高值区间内远远低于非收缩乡镇，呈现出发展分异。⑥收缩更容易发生在人口规模较小的乡镇；资源型城市内的乡镇比非资源型城市内的乡镇人口收缩程度严重；城市群内的乡镇比城市群外的乡镇人口流失更严重。

Abstract: Taking the townships in the Yellow River basin as the research object and based on the data of the Sixth National Census,the Seventh National Census,spatial remote sensing and relevant economic and social statistical data,this paper proposes a shrinkage identification method from the dual perspectives of administrative boundary (broad sense) and economic boundary (narrow sense),so as to accurately define the population shrinkage of townships in the Yellow River basin,and then analyze the spatial pattern and characteristics of population shrinkage. The results show that: 1) From 2010 to 2020,a serious shrinkage phenomenon occurred in the Yellow River basin,with 76.82% of the townships experiencing administrative boundary shrinkage and 45.65% experiencing economic boundary shrinkage. 2629 townships experienced simultaneously two types of boundary shrinkage,which accounts for 36.42%. 2) Shrinking townships show the uneven distribution characteristic,are mainly distributed in the northwest and east sides of the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River,and basically form a concentrated and contiguous distribution trend,Henan Province accounts for the highest proportion of shrinking townships. 3) From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation,shrinking townships have significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the number of townships in low-low agglomeration areas and high-high agglomeration areas accounts for 37.58% and 19.25%,respectively. 4) Compared with non-shrinking townships,shrinking townships have a faster decrease in working-age population. The aging degree is more serious,the pressure for supporting the elderly is greater and the demographic dividend is smaller. 5) The number of industrial enterprises,industrial enterprises above designated size,general stores and supermarkets in shrinking townships is much lower than that in non-shrinking townships,showing a difference in development. 6) Shrinkage is more likely to occur in townships with smaller populations,the population shrinkage of townships in resource-based cities is more serious than that in non-resource-based cities. The population loss of townships within urban agglomerations is more serious than that of townships outside urban agglomerations.

• 分类： 地理学 >> 人文地理学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《经济地理》 2024年 第3期 “区域经济与理论方法”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202408.00666 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202408.00666V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202408.00666
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202408.00666
• 推荐引用方式： 张学良,潘  婷.双重边界视角下乡镇人口收缩的精准识别与特征分析——以黄河流域为例.经济地理,2024(3).[PSSXiv:202408.00666V1] (点此复制)