谁在关注台湾——美国第 117 届国会众议院关键议员涉台提案行为动因研究

• 作者： 肖天骐 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国人民大学
• 通讯作者： 肖天骐 
• 提交时间：2024-07-07

摘要: 台湾问题始终是中美关系中的关键敏感议题。长期以来，某些美国国会议员通过提案等方式炒作台湾问题，扰乱了两国关系和台海局势。为进一步探究国会议员提出涉台议案的行为逻辑，本文选择第117届美国国会众议院涉台提案数据为研究对象，构建了议员涉台提案的有向网络。通过PageRank算法以及凝聚子群分析识别出涉台关键议员群体，并尝试利用层次分析法剖析了议员涉台行为的特征。本文发现，在个人属性层面，共和党籍、亚裔身份更容易导致议员在涉台提案上更为活跃；在选区社会属性层面，亚裔选民比例、拉美裔选民比例较高选区的议员，更易参与涉台提案；在国会权力结构层面，参与台湾连线、外交事务委员会、科学、太空与技术委员会、小企业委员会、国土安全委员会的议员更易参与涉台提案。

Abstract: The Taiwan question has consistently been a crucial and sensitive topic in Sino-American relations. For a long time, certain members of the U.S. Congress have stirred up the Taiwan question through proposals and other means, disrupting bilateral relations and the situation across straits. To further explore the behavioral logic behind congressional members’ introduction of Taiwan-related proposals, this study selects data from Taiwan-related proposals in the 117th U.S. House of Representatives as the research subject and constructs a directed network of congress members’ Taiwan-related proposals. By employing the PageRank algorithm and cohesive subgroup analysis, key groups of congress members involved in Taiwan-related proposals were identified. Moreover, the study attempts to analyze the characteristics of these congress members’ Taiwan-related behaviors using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The findings reveal that, at the individual attribute level, Republican affiliation and Asian ethnicity are more likely to result in higher activity levels in Taiwan-related proposals. At the constituency social attribute level, congress members representing constituencies with higher proportions of Asian and Hispanic voters are more inclined to participate in Taiwan-related proposals. At the congressional power structure level, members involved in the Taiwan Caucus, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, the Small Business Committee, and the Homeland Security Committee are more likely to engage in Taiwan-related proposals.

• 来自： 肖天骐
• 分类： 政治学 >> 国际关系
• 稿件状态： 未投稿
• 引用： PSSXiv:202408.01040 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202408.01040V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202408.01040
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202408.01040
• 推荐引用方式： 肖天骐.谁在关注台湾——美国第 117 届国会众议院关键议员涉台提案行为动因研究.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202408.01040.[PSSXiv:202408.01040V1] (点此复制)