城市社区改造对住宅价格的预期效应——基于杭州未来社区项目的实证分析

• 作者： 何悦 ¹ 张彬 ¹ 王思懿 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  浙江大学建筑工程学院
• 提交时间：2024-09-25

摘要: 随着中国经济体制的改革以及城市化进程的快速推进，中国部分城市的房地产市场已经进入库存化阶段，城市社区改造成为解决城市房地产存量问题的重要手段。在参考国内外相关城市社区改造文献的基础上，以浙江省杭州市改造更新类未来社区为实证案例，探索城市社区改造对住宅价格的预期效应。结果表明：未来社区名单公示使未来社区周边住宅价格上涨了5.2%。这种预期效应的影响具有随着时间变化而衰减的趋势。未来社区对住宅价格的影响存在异质性，对住宅价格的推动作用随着城市社区改造项目规模的扩大而显著增加。首批未来社区试点名单公示对低、中、高不同价位住宅购买者的住宅选择行为存在差异性，更高价位住宅购买者对周边城市社区改造具有更强的支付意愿。

Abstract: With the reform of China’s economic system and the rapid advancement of urbanization, the real estate market in some cities in China has entered the stage of inventory, and urban community transformation has become an important means to solve the problem of urban real estate inventory. Based on the reference of relevant literature on urban community renovation at home and abroad, this paper takes the future community of Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province as an empirical case to explore the expected effect of urban community renovation on housing prices. The results indicate that the announcement of the future community list increases the house price around the future community by 5.2%. The influence of this expected effect tends to decrease with time. The influence of future communities on housing prices is heterogeneous, and the driving effect on housing prices significantly increases with the expansion of the scale of urban community renovation projects. The announcement of the first batch of future community pilot list has differences in the housing choice behavior of low, medium and high price housing buyers, and higher price housing buyers have stronger willingness to pay for the renovation of surrounding urban communities.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 区域经济学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《价格月刊》 2024年 第6期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202410.00003 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202410.00003V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202410.00003
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202410.00003
• 推荐引用方式： 何悦,张彬,王思懿.城市社区改造对住宅价格的预期效应——基于杭州未来社区项目的实证分析.价格月刊,2024(6).[PSSXiv:202410.00003V1] (点此复制)