撤县设区、产业结构调整与地区间产业关联

• 作者： 李博 ¹ 施瀚 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  北京大学 经济学院
• 通讯作者： 施瀚 
• 提交时间：2024-06-06

摘要: 稳妥有序推进新型城镇化，正成为“十四五”期间乃至未来更长一段时期推动经济高质量发展和区域协调发展的关键。政府间的财政关系调整将深刻影响区域间的经济关系。使用多期动态双重差分DID方法，分析“撤县设区”这类行政区划调整对地区间产业关联的影响。研究发现，经济关系上，可贸易部门发展水平越高的相邻地区之间，其产业关联度越高。但“撤县设区”改革，使得被撤并县与临近地区的产业关联度下降。撤县设区本质上是一种由市级政府主导的城镇化模式，被撤并县实施了更有利于不可贸易部门发展的土地政策，而缩减了对于可贸易部门的土地支持政策，导致了地区产业结构从可贸易部门为主，向以不可贸易部门为主的经济转型，最终降低了地区间产业关联。为此，科学审慎地推动撤县设区改革，优化财权事权改革方案，有助于高质量城镇化，推动区域经济的协调发展。

Abstract: The systematic and orderly promotion of new urbanization is becoming a key driver for high-quality economic development and regional coordination during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period and beyond. Adjustments in intergovernmental fiscal relations are expected to significantly impact economic relationships between regions. Using a multi-period dynamic Difference-in-Differences （DID） method， this study analyzes the effects of administrative restructuring， specifically the “City-county Merger Reform”， on inter-regional industrial connections. The research reveals that neighboring regions with a higher-level development in the tradable sector exhibit stronger economic interdependence， but the “City-county Merger Reform” induces a decline in industrial linkage between merged and neighboring counties. This shift is primarily attributed to the reform’s nature as an urbanization led by municipal governments， with merged counties implementing land policies favoring non-tradable sectors， while reducing land support policies for the tradable sector， thereby prompting merged counties to transition from tradable sector focused economies to non-tradable sector focused economies， resulting in a decrease in inter-regional industrial linkages. In light of these findings， it is suggested that prudently advancing the “City-county Merger Reform” and optimizing fiscal and administrative power reform plans help to facilitate the coordinated development of regional economies through high-quality urbanization.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 国民经济学
• 说明： “应用经济研究”专栏
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》 2024年 第2期 “应用经济研究”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202406.00246 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202406.00246V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202406.00246
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202406.00246
• 推荐引用方式： 李博,施瀚.撤县设区、产业结构调整与地区间产业关联.北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）,2024(2).[PSSXiv:202406.00246V1] (点此复制)